War in Ukraine. The year was fantastic. This year should have a fabulous ending
Источник: | Фото взято из оригинала статьи или из открытых источников
08.12.24 | 368
The year passing, it is time to sum up the interim results, at least briefly.
______________
The main problem of the century will be the contradiction between the right of peoples to self-determination, enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter, and the internationally recognized borders of sovereign states. According to statistics from UNPO, an organization of unrepresented (in the UN) peoples, about 50 nations and peoples want to gain independence as sovereign states. Together, they make up approximately plus 25 percent of potential new members to the UN list. The surge in activity of UNPO members directly depends on how the conflict in and around Ukraine is resolved. It believed that UNPO is under the control of the international community, since it opposed the presentation of the sovereignty of the LPR and DPR, but one should not delude oneself.
The decline in the authority of the United Nations and related organizations will continue. Decisions are made not on the basis of the UN Charter and international law, but by voting, a pre-organized "majority vote".
The decline in the authority of international law and the replacement of law with "rules" will continue. There is no exhaustive list of "rules" recognized by the world community. Rhetorical references to violations of international law are in fact references to "rules." The role of international law, both private and public, minimized. If deviations from the law are for political purposes, then any norms violated, with reference to "rules."
The decline in the authority of the International Criminal Court will continue. A typical example is the arrest warrant for Putin and Netanyahu. The arrest warrant for Putin did not raise any objections. Meanwhile, Netanyahu openly asked US President Biden to put pressure on the ICC to prevent the issuance of an arrest warrant for him, although the US has not signed the Rome Statute and does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. The request for a warrant against Netanyahu led to the initiation of a criminal investigation against the ICC prosecutor, British lawyer Karim Khan, on clearly far-fetched suspicions.
The weakening of the economic and geopolitical role of the European Union will continue. The collapse of European democracy. The "leaders" of the EU no longer appeal to diplomacy, but choose forceful options for solving international problems. The final transformation of the political and economic union into a military union is taking place. Relations within the union are aggravated – sanctions and fines, obstruction and ostracism in relation to EU member states. The function of any political union is expansion. If the expansion function is exhausted, the union quickly loses viability. They are trying to save the situation by involving Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia in the expansion process. It is obvious that the criteria for EU candidate countries will lowered.
Totalitarian democracy will continue to strengthen. The concepts of "democracy" and "freedom" widely used in political rhetoric have lost their specific content and have turned into simulacra that used arbitrarily and situationally. For example, if earlier the talk was about the amount of democracy or freedom in pariah countries, today their presence completely denied. The question of the quality of democracy and freedom is not on the agenda at all. Denial is widely used to devalue the results of a national plebiscite at any level without sufficient grounds for this. It is enough for the national elections if the USA and the EU do not recognize it.
The United States of America will continue to make military and political efforts to maintain a leading position in the world. The emergence of a second pole or multipolarity seen as an existential threat to the state. The Western community will continue to consolidate against states out of the rules – Palestine, Iran, Syria, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Russia, etc. Long before his inauguration, the newly elected US president threatened from a position of strength with unprecedented economic sanctions against BRICS, an international organization, that is gaining influence and represents the interests of approximately half of the world's population. The instillation of controlled chaos in unwanted states or their associations will continue.
The future of NATO also depends on the potential for expansion. Obviously, in this case, the criteria for candidate countries for membership in the alliance will lowered. The changes will affect NATO's main function – preventive measures will considered defensive. The alliance will face irreversible changes as soon as the possibilities for expansion are exhausted. Either the alliance will begin to disintegrate, or it will forced to expand at the expense of Asia and the Middle East. In any case, the original idea will be lost.
Indochina and Africa will continue the policy of final liberation from the colonial and neocolonial influence of European countries and the USA. The situation is all the more urgent because the USA and several EU countries still have colonies. In addition, there are such postcolonial phenomena as the British Commonwealth of Nations and the Francophone countries.
It is very likely that next year we will see several new regional conflicts at once. The conflict in Ukraine will not be resolved until the violence that has accumulated on both sides is properly channelled. The same fate awaits Israel, Palestine and the countries surrounding them.
_______________
I cannot predict what will happen to Russia. Russia is a black box from which Europe, before backing down, will fence itself off for many decades with an iron curtain or an analogue of the Berlin Wall. Estonian experts will soon begin to talk about what will happen to Russia in the new year. They know everything. We will have to take their word for it.
______________
This year has been fantastic and should end with at least an alien invasion. This is not my idea.
Источник: | Фото взято из оригинала статьи или из открытых источников
08.12.24 | 368
Michael Petrov
The year passing, it is time to sum up the interim results, at least briefly.
______________
The main problem of the century will be the contradiction between the right of peoples to self-determination, enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter, and the internationally recognized borders of sovereign states. According to statistics from UNPO, an organization of unrepresented (in the UN) peoples, about 50 nations and peoples want to gain independence as sovereign states. Together, they make up approximately plus 25 percent of potential new members to the UN list. The surge in activity of UNPO members directly depends on how the conflict in and around Ukraine is resolved. It believed that UNPO is under the control of the international community, since it opposed the presentation of the sovereignty of the LPR and DPR, but one should not delude oneself.
The decline in the authority of the United Nations and related organizations will continue. Decisions are made not on the basis of the UN Charter and international law, but by voting, a pre-organized "majority vote".
The decline in the authority of international law and the replacement of law with "rules" will continue. There is no exhaustive list of "rules" recognized by the world community. Rhetorical references to violations of international law are in fact references to "rules." The role of international law, both private and public, minimized. If deviations from the law are for political purposes, then any norms violated, with reference to "rules."
The decline in the authority of the International Criminal Court will continue. A typical example is the arrest warrant for Putin and Netanyahu. The arrest warrant for Putin did not raise any objections. Meanwhile, Netanyahu openly asked US President Biden to put pressure on the ICC to prevent the issuance of an arrest warrant for him, although the US has not signed the Rome Statute and does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. The request for a warrant against Netanyahu led to the initiation of a criminal investigation against the ICC prosecutor, British lawyer Karim Khan, on clearly far-fetched suspicions.
The weakening of the economic and geopolitical role of the European Union will continue. The collapse of European democracy. The "leaders" of the EU no longer appeal to diplomacy, but choose forceful options for solving international problems. The final transformation of the political and economic union into a military union is taking place. Relations within the union are aggravated – sanctions and fines, obstruction and ostracism in relation to EU member states. The function of any political union is expansion. If the expansion function is exhausted, the union quickly loses viability. They are trying to save the situation by involving Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia in the expansion process. It is obvious that the criteria for EU candidate countries will lowered.
Totalitarian democracy will continue to strengthen. The concepts of "democracy" and "freedom" widely used in political rhetoric have lost their specific content and have turned into simulacra that used arbitrarily and situationally. For example, if earlier the talk was about the amount of democracy or freedom in pariah countries, today their presence completely denied. The question of the quality of democracy and freedom is not on the agenda at all. Denial is widely used to devalue the results of a national plebiscite at any level without sufficient grounds for this. It is enough for the national elections if the USA and the EU do not recognize it.
The United States of America will continue to make military and political efforts to maintain a leading position in the world. The emergence of a second pole or multipolarity seen as an existential threat to the state. The Western community will continue to consolidate against states out of the rules – Palestine, Iran, Syria, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Russia, etc. Long before his inauguration, the newly elected US president threatened from a position of strength with unprecedented economic sanctions against BRICS, an international organization, that is gaining influence and represents the interests of approximately half of the world's population. The instillation of controlled chaos in unwanted states or their associations will continue.
The future of NATO also depends on the potential for expansion. Obviously, in this case, the criteria for candidate countries for membership in the alliance will lowered. The changes will affect NATO's main function – preventive measures will considered defensive. The alliance will face irreversible changes as soon as the possibilities for expansion are exhausted. Either the alliance will begin to disintegrate, or it will forced to expand at the expense of Asia and the Middle East. In any case, the original idea will be lost.
Indochina and Africa will continue the policy of final liberation from the colonial and neocolonial influence of European countries and the USA. The situation is all the more urgent because the USA and several EU countries still have colonies. In addition, there are such postcolonial phenomena as the British Commonwealth of Nations and the Francophone countries.
It is very likely that next year we will see several new regional conflicts at once. The conflict in Ukraine will not be resolved until the violence that has accumulated on both sides is properly channelled. The same fate awaits Israel, Palestine and the countries surrounding them.
_______________
I cannot predict what will happen to Russia. Russia is a black box from which Europe, before backing down, will fence itself off for many decades with an iron curtain or an analogue of the Berlin Wall. Estonian experts will soon begin to talk about what will happen to Russia in the new year. They know everything. We will have to take their word for it.
______________
This year has been fantastic and should end with at least an alien invasion. This is not my idea.
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