War in Ukraine, in short, what is it?
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25.08.24 | 1242

Michael Petrov

"Make no mistake: Russia will not win this conflict.
The independent people of Ukraine will win."
US President Joe Biden
 
"The Ukrainian offensive on the Kursk Bulge has dealt
a serious blow to the narrative of Russian President Putin."
Josep Borrell
 
The narrative for the collective West is a well-planned, unprovoked, full-scale invasion, as well as the seizure of Ukraine and the destruction of its independence, the creation of a springboard for a subsequent Russian attack on NATO countries. An attack for what purpose?
 
For Russia, this is a forced Special Military Operation, which has essentially turned into an unrecognized civil war. The goal is to protect newly acquired territories, demilitarize Ukraine and establish its non-aligned status. The goal is also denazification, i.e. total lustration in order to eradicate nationalist anti-Russian ideology in government structures and society.
 
In a global sense, the goal is to establish a multipolar world in which Russia becomes one of the recognized poles of power, which refutes the plans attributed to it for a war against NATO, the seizure of Poland or the Baltic states. The meaning of a pole of power is not to starts wars, but to contain them.
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The collective West blames Russia for the hybrid nature of warfare – aggressive actions in all spheres of economic and cultural life with the aim of destroying freedom and democracy throughout the world. It is funny that more than 20 thousand sanctions against Russia in almost all spheres of international economics, politics and culture indicate that Russia is more likely a victim of hybrid warfare than a hybrid aggressor. In this regard, it is not even the direct losses of the collective West from its own sanctions that are curious, but the costs of servicing 20 thousand sanction positions – this is an entire industry!
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Biden is partly right: the information war against Russia won long before the hot phase of the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, there is no doubt about it.
 
In the conflict around Ukraine, the White House will consider its victory the preservation and strengthening of the unipolar world order, the critical weakening of the Russian economy, and the historical humiliation at the international level during the Nuremberg-type trials of its leaders. The leader of a unipolar world must constantly maintain his authority, proving the right to violence through victorious local wars
 
Kyiv will consider the return of ALL occupied territories and satisfaction, i.e. moral and economic satisfaction based on justice, a victory.
 
Estonia also has its own interests. Based on the opinion of the former prime minister, the victory of the collective West can considered the fragmentation of Russia into several small states, provided if Russia itself deprived of nuclear weapons and deprived of access to hydrocarbon deposits.
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For Russia, the only possible victory can only be a peace treaty with Ukraine, concluded at the negotiating table from a position of strength. Negotiations, because unconditional surrender, from the point of view of international politics, alas, is not the best option for ending the conflict. Therefore, they are not going to negotiate with Ukraine itself, but with the collective West (guarantors). Russia's current public refusal to negotiate with the Ze regime is a situational reaction and concerns only Ze himself.
 
Occupation, total demilitarization and denazification will be excluded on the simple grounds that de facto it is possible to force the Ze regime to capitulate, but it is impossible to control it after capitulation. Russia will not be able to carry out a total occupation of Ukraine – the times are not right, and the contingent is not right. Therefore, the confirmation of borders, international fixation of a non-aligned nature and partial demilitarization of Ukraine under international control are possible and can considered as victory.
 
Denazification is a bargaining chip in negotiations, because this is the main horror story that frightens the average person in the world of freedom and democracy. What freedom can take away from the average Western person? Except perhaps the right to openly dispose of an ass hole.
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I am convinced that there will be no winners in the hot conflict in and around Ukraine - everyone will lose without exception, including not only the combatants, but also the rich sponsors and tifosi.
 
The world is rapidly sliding towards irreconcilable polarization and unprecedentedly tough economic competition, based on unhindered access to the exploitation of the planet's natural resources. Green energy is a suicidal fraud for many European countries, distracting from the struggle for control over hydrocarbons and other strategic resources. The same fraud is the ideology of freedom and total democracy as applied to states that do not have resources.
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In a sense, the history of the anti-Hitler coalition is repeating itself. If the USSR, first, fought against the misanthropic ideology of Nazism, then the Western partners fought to preserve the world colonial system, in fact, for the dominance of their own economies and leading roles in world politics. The apotheosis of the struggle was the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, which fixed the hegemony of the dollar and the unipolar world based on it, the Iron Curtain and the Cold War.
 
The US got over the unipolar world, but the USSR did not become a full-fledged pole of power. For almost fifty years, the Union wasted resources in a permanent race for the leader - "Catch up and overtake America!" A narrative clearly not characteristic of a pole of power.
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Therefore, Borrell is wrong: the struggle is not between ideological narratives, but between economies and resources. Narratives are for the choir of beggars who have a solemn meeting of green delirium tremens at someone else's feast.
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Pray for a happy outcome of the Ukrainian tragedy.
 
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